सेंसेक्स-निफ्टी में आई तेजी नहीं है टिकाऊ, लॉन्ग टर्म में ही मिलेंगे अच्छे रिटर्न

बीते एक महीने से इंडियन मार्केट में जारी गिरावट अब थम गई है। सेंसेक्स दो दिन में 841 अंक और निफ्टी 251 अंक चढ़ा है। हालांकि मार्केट एक्सपर्ट्स इस तेजी को टिकाऊ नहीं मान रहे हैं, क्योंकि अगले हफ्ते अमेरिका में फेडरल रिजर्व की ब्याज दरों पर अहम बैठक है। साथ ही एफआईआई की बिकवाली अभी भी जारी है। ऐसे में इन्वेस्टर्स को स्मॉलकैप में इन्वेस्ट करने के लिए थोड़ा इंतजार करना चाहिए, क्योंकि मार्केट स्टेबल होने पर ही मिडकैप और स्मॉलकैप में खरीददारी लौटती है।

दो दिन में सेंसेक्स और निफ्टी तीन फीसदी से ज्यादा चढ़े

• एक महीने से जारी गिरावट कुछ थमती नजर आ रही है। 10 अगस्त से 9 सितंबर के बीच सेंसेक्स में 2516 अंक यानी 8.91 फीसदी की गिरावट आई है। वहीं इस दौरान निफ्टी 8600 के स्तर से लुढ़ककर 7818 के स्तर पर आ गया था। हालांकि दो दिन में टेक्निकल बाउंस बैक के चलते सेंसेक्स और निफ्टी 3 फीसदी से ज्यादा चढ़ गए हैं। वहीं, बीएसई का स्मॉलकैप इंडेक्स 247.8 अंक यानी 2.35 फीसदी चढ़ा है।

• मार्केट एक्सपर्ट्स कहते हैं कि इंडियन मार्केट ओवरसोल्ड हो चुके थे। इसीलिए एक बाउंसबैक रैली की उम्मीद लगाई जा रही थी। हालांकि अभी बड़े ग्लोबल इवेंट खत्म नहीं हुए हैं, इसीलिए स्मॉलकैप की जगह दिग्गज स्टॉक्स पर दांव लगाना बेहतर होगा।

मार्केट की तेजी नहीं है टिकाऊ

• मार्केट एक्सपर्ट्स अंबरीश बालिगा कहते हैं कि दो दिन की तेजी को टिकाऊ मानना अभी जल्दबाजी होगा, क्योंकि देश में इकोनॉमिक ग्रोथ, इंफ्रा ग्रोथ, पॉलिसी एक्शन, अर्निंग ग्रोथ, मानसून को लेकर अभी भी चिंताएं हैं। फिलहाल एफआईआई भारत के इकोनॉमिक फैक्टर नहीं बल्कि ग्लोबल फैक्टर को देख रहे हैं। एफआईआई सारे बाजारों में बिकवाली कर रहे हैं। लेकिन अगर डीआईआई बिकवाली करें तो चिंता की बात है।

• जीईपीएल कैपिटल की रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक निफ्टी सोमवार को 7559 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ था, जो 14 महीने का निचला स्तर था। हालांकि चार्ट्स पर निफ्टी ओवरसोल्ड हो चुका था, जिससे एक बाउंस बैक रैली की उम्मीद लगाई जा रही थी। इसीलिए निफ्टी ने तेजी दिखाई है। निफ्टी पर अब अगला रेजिस्टेंस 7830 का है। अगर निफ्टी इसके ऊपर क्लोजिंग देता है तो निफ्टी में फिर से 8000 के स्तर आ सकते हैं, अगर नहीं तो निफ्टी के फिर से 7600 के नीचे फिसलने की आशंका है।

एफआईआई की बिकवाली जारी

• मंगलवार के कारोबार में सेंसेक्स 424 अंक बढ़कर 25318 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ था, जबकि विदेशी संस्थागत निवेशकों (एफआईआई) ने कैश में 659.67 करोड़ रुपए की बिकवाली की थी। साथ ही 11 अगस्त के बाद 17 सत्र में से 14 सत्र में एफआईआई ने कुल मिलाकर बिकवाली की है और 11 अगस्त से अब तक बाजार में 3.29 अरब डॉलर की बिकवाली हो चुकी है। 10 साल की अवधि वाले बॉन्ड की यील्ड 7.765 फीसदी तक पहुंच गई है।

अमेरिका में इंटरेस्ट रेट्स बढ़ने पर संशय बरकरार

• अमेरिका के सेंट्रल बैंक फेडरल रिजर्व की 16-17 सितंबर को महत्वपूर्ण बैठक है, जिसमें ब्याज दरें बढ़ाने पर फैसला होगा। हालांकि ब्रोकरेज मानते हैं कि अगस्त के पहले हफ्ते में आए जॉब मार्केट के मिलेजुले डाटा के बाद संभव है कि फेडरल रिजर्व सितंबर में रेट्स में बढ़ोत्तरी की शुरुआत टाल सकता है। आरबीएस, बार्कलेज, डॉयचे बैंक और गोल्डमैन सैक्स सितंबर में रेट्स के स्थिर रहने का अनुमान लगा रहे हैं। बैंकों के मुताबिक फेडरल रिजर्व दरों में बढ़ोत्तरी को लेकर जल्दबाजी नहीं करेगा, खास तौर पर उस वक्त जब अर्थव्यवस्था के आंकड़े मिलेजुले आ रहे हों।

Indian Rupee And The U.S. Fed Rate Hike

Before we drill down into the Fed policy decision, it is of significant importance that we look at the impact on the strong dollar on the US economy. Our research shows that between 1982 and 2000, the greenback soared nearly 178% and if you look at the performance of the country’s stock market, it skyrocketed nearly 1099%. During this period, the economy also created nearly 40 million jobs. On the flip side, during the decline of the dollar from 2001 to 2011, the job market printed a very abate number of 23 million jobs and the GDP growth averaged less than 2 percent as compared to the boom time when the same number was 3.5 percent.

The Federal reserve bank cannot solely look at their own economy when they want to raise the interest rate no matter how much you add noise to this statement. Yes, it is true that China only makes 1 percent of the US GDP, but no one knows the ripple effect of the debt which China is holding and if it starts to default what will be the consequences. Nonetheless, we concur that the base case for the Fed is economic data in order to raise the rates and this will matter the most. Given that the US non Farm payroll data has shown that the Fed has almost approached its full employment, there is nothing which warrants them to keep the interest rate this low – even if we plug in the Chinese weakness. For the Fed, it is the wage growth and participation rate, which is the most important and these two numbers are driving the dollar, which then makes the emerging market currencies bounce up and down. The below charts shows the US average hourly earning jumped to 0.3

It is true that the dollar strength is a negative sign for the emerging markets, but again, given the valuation and risk and reward ratio some of the opportunities are too good to ignore. The key to success is in choosing the correct currency among the emerging markets and see their fiscal and monetary policy and then place your bets accordingly.

There is no surprise if we are talking about a brawny currency amid emerging markets, the one which stands out is theIndian rupee. The Indian rupee is the only currency among emerging markets which has shown strength against the dollar during the past year. The currency had its biggest fall back in 2011 and 2013 when the major devaluation was taking place, but now, the question is if the currency will continue to shine through in the coming days. The authorities in India are taking remarkable measures to prop up its economy and sparking efforts are taking place at both ends- fiscal and monetary sides. India’s central bank governor, Raghuram Govind Rajan is considered as one of the most credible person among central bankers and he has recently said that there is only so much the monetary policy can do to shore up the economic growth and the rest of the weight must be taken up by the fiscal policies.

From this statement, we believe, that the governor is giving a clear message that the Indian central bank is pretty much done in devaluing the currency and its fiscal reform part is the responsibility of the country’s prime minister, Mr Mohdi. The prime minister is completely focused on making the country more friendly with international investments and this is feeding in the economic data. India’s dependence on China is very much limited, therefore, a slowdown in China is not meaningfully impacting the economic health of the country. In the past, with Greek debt crisis, which rattled the entire Eurozone and the global equity market, did not make much impact on the Indian rupee. This confirms that the currency may continue to outperform other emerging market currencies in the coming days. The below chart shows that the Indian rupee has started to consolidate against the dollar.

Although with Fed raising the rates, whenever that will take place will bring more volatility for the currency, but we do certainly believe that most of this already baked in the pair. The dollar may not soar by much as many are expecting, which will be perfect trader’s agenda “buy the rumor and sell the news”.

DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER: The above is for informational purposes only and NOT to be construed as specific trading advice. responsibility for trade decisions is solely with the reader.

by Naeem Aslam

Indian Agri Commodities Witness Weak Trend

mpositions of 10% additional margin in Buy positions in futures market amidst reports of impositions of stock limits in some states kept trend weak for Chana on Wednesday.

Impositions of 10% additional margin in Buy positions in futures market amidst reports of impositions of stock limits in some states kept trend weak for Chana on Wednesday; Guar too traded weak on lack of strong export demand as traders waited for some dips before initiating fresh demand in the mandis.

Spices too weakened as lack of strong export demand at these higher levels kept trend down; rains in growing state over last few days had kept sentiments weak for Turmeric.

Rains in growing states kept trend down for Soybean also as slight weakness in Interna-tional markets kept pressure on the prices.

Oil prices remain low as Japan data hints at weaker Asia economy

By Henning Gloystein

SINGAPORE, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices slipped a fraction in early trading on Thursday as shrinking Japanese machinery orders fuelled concerns that weak levels of investment could further erode already slow growth in Asia.

Japan's core machinery orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, fell 3.6 percent in July, official data showed on Thursday.

That was much worse than a 3.7 percent increase expected by economists, and followed a 7.9 percent month-on-month decline in June.

In China, Asia's biggest economy, analysts already expect a further slowdown in economic growth, now at its lowest in a generation.

Benchmark Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $47.52 per barrel at 0130 GMT, just below levels of their last settlement. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were virtually unchanged at $44.16 a barrel.

Oil prices have fallen by over 50 percent since June 2014, when soaring global output began to clash with slowing economies in Asia, the main growth engine for commodities of the last years.

The weakening in Asia's economies and commodity demand is having far-reaching effects.

On Wednesday, Standard & Poor's downgraded Brazil to a junk-grade credit rating, just seven years after it first won an investment-grade rating. Brazil, one of the main commodity exporters to China and a member of the so-called BRICS emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), was until recently seen as one of the main drivers of the global economy.

(Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

VEGOILS-Palm oil stays near 6-wk high despite rising production, inventory

* Palm oil prices supported by weaker ringgit

* August output up 12.96 pct from pvs month-MPOB

* Palm oil stocks at end-August up 10 pct-MPOB

By Emily Chow

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Thursday, hovering near their six-week high on the back of a weaker ringgit, though data showing rising production and inventory weighed on sentiment.

The benchmark November contract 1FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 0.8 percent by the midday break at 2,129 ringgit ($490.10) a tonne.

Palm hit a six-week high of 2,132 ringgit on Wednesday on technical buying and short-covering ahead of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's (MPOB) production and inventory data.

Traded volume stood at 17,327 lots of 25 tonnes each, above the average of 13,500 lots at the end of the morning session.

"The rise in production and stockpiles was within market expectations, the ringgit is the main factor driving the market today," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of August rose 10 percent to 2.49 million tonnes from a revised 2.27 million tonnes at the end of July, industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said. ID:nL4N11G29P

Palm oil output in the world's second largest producer rose 12.96 percent from a month earlier in August, data released by MPOB showed.

Palm oil is expected to rise to 2,171 ringgit as it has broken a resistance at 2,113 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals Wang Tao. ID:nL4N11G1W7

The Malaysian currency MYR= has provided some support to the vegetable oil in recent weeks as a weaker ringgit makes palm cheaper for offshore buyers. It is emerging Asia's worst performing currency this year, having lost nearly 20 percent so far. It lost 0.4 percent against the dollar at 4.3420 by midday on Thursday.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the most active January soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 0.3 percent lower, while the U.S. December soyoil contract BOZ5 was down 0.04 percent.

Crude oil prices fell slightly in early trading, as shrinking Japanese machinery orders fuelled concerns over an already slowing Asian growth. O/R

Palm oil often takes price direction from crude oil, as vegetable oils are increasingly used in making renewable fuels.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0528 GMT

Contract

Month

Last Change

Low

High Volume MY PALM OIL

SEP5

0

+0.00

0

0

0 MY PALM OIL

OCT5

2066

+9.00

2046

2066

613 MY PALM OIL

NOV5

2129 +16.00

2099

2130

7238 CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN6

4318 -18.00

4280

4344 603458 CHINA SOYOIL

JAN6

5402 -16.00

5368

5422 403544 CBOT SOY OIL

DEC5 26.90

+2.30 26.78 26.94

3623 INDIA PALM OIL SEP5 382.40

+2.30 381.10 383.50

421 INDIA SOYOIL

OCT5 560.70

+0.55 560.30 561.50

5195 NYMEX CRUDE

OCT5 43.94

-0.21 43.36 44.25 14408

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

($1 = 4.3440 ringgit) ($1 = 66.6500 Indian rupees) ($1 = 6.3837 Chinese yuan)

Gold prices gain in Asia as China CPI rise noted

Investing.com - Gold prices gained in Asia on Thursday with regional data sets noted, particularly a rise in consumer prices in China.

In China consumer prices rose 0.5%, higher than the 0.4% gain seen in August and producer prices fell 5.9%, ore than the expected drop of 5.5% year-on-year.

Earlier, in Australia the overall unemployment rate fell to 6.2% as expected from from 6.3% and 11,500 jobs were added, compared to an expected 5,000 under a participation rate of 65% as seen.

Japan's corporate goods price index for August fell 0.6%, compared to a 0.4% fall seen month-on-month, while core machinery orders dipped 3.6% in July month-on-month, well off the 3.7% gain seen.

And the New Zealand dollar slumped in Asia on Thursday after the central bank, as expected, cut its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery rose 0.33% to $1,105.60 a troy ounce, wjhile silver for December delivery fell 0.04% to $14.570 a troy ounce.

Copper for December delivery rose 0.39% to $2.432 a pound.

Overnight, gold futures fell sharply on Wednesday suffering its largest one-day fall in more than six weeks, amid a broadly stronger dollar and the introduction of further stimulus measures by China to rekindle its flagging economy.

In Beijing, China's finance ministry said it would introduce "more forceful" fiscal measures in order to boost slowing economic growth, which is projected to remain at the lowest level in more than a decade for the third quarter. The measures include a potential tax cut for small business, as well as the allocation of funding for infrastructure projects. As part of the proposal, the ministry approved two railway projects worth nearly 70 billion yuan or $11 billion.

“We will accelerate the implementation and improvement of proactive fiscal policy and related measures, do timely fine tuning, and speed up reform measures to support stable growth and promote continued healthy economic development,” the finance ministry said in a statement.

It came one day after China announced that its dollar-denominated exports fell sharply by 5.5% on a year-over-year basis in August, exacerbating concerns about persisting weakness in the world's second-largest economy. Imports, meanwhile, tumbled 13.8% on a yearly basis, producing a trade surplus of $60.24 billion. On Wednesday, theShanghai Composite index closed 2.3% higher extending gains from one session earlier. China is the world's largest producer of gold and the second-largest consumer behind India.

In the U.S., the Labor Department said on Wednesday in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that nationwide openings increased to a new series high in July, reaching a level of 5.8 million. The survey previously rose to a series-high in May when it reached a level of 5.4 million. The job openings rate surged 3.9% in July, after measuring at 3.6% the previous three months. It also came off the back of a mixed employment report for August on Friday when the labor market added 173,000 non-farm payrolls, while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.1%, its lowest level since April, 2008. The data could strengthen arguments from the hawks at the Federal Reserve for a September interest rate hike.

Gold, which is not attached to dividends or interest rates, struggles to compete with high-yield bearing assets in raising rate environments.

On Tuesday, World Bank chief economist Kaushik Basu warned that a rate hike by the Fed next week could trigger a widespread crisis in emerging markets, pushing capital away from their economies and potentially creating sharp fluctuations in their currencies. Officials from the International Monetary Fund have issued similar warnings in recent weeks on the severe ramifications a rate hike could have on global markets that are not in the position to absorb a tightening of monetary policy from the U.S. central bank.